07. January 2015 · Categories: Apple

I wonder about the Apple Watch, as I find it difficult to imagine what it will be good for. It has to make do with an extremely small output area, which means that it can only compete against the iPhone in cases where the interaction is so short that the convenience of having a 2 to 3 second faster access wins out against the much better experience you could provide with the iPhone, or the information that needs to be processed is so small that it can comfortably fit onto the watch.

These activities are pretty limited:

  • Authentication is probably the killer app: it could replace all the keys and the credit cards you own with an inherently more secure solution. Ideally it would also replace our IDs, and it could replace all our computer logins.
  • “What’s up?” is also an important task to master: seeing a reminder for your next appointment, for puplic transport times, the weather, or walking/cycling directions are quite helpful. For some seeing who is calling/texting might be essential, but for me it would be just annoying, while the reverse would be brilliant, having the watch figure out whether it is good time to interrupt me and tell my callers.
  • Remote control for small things: controlling the TV, changing the temperature, preheating the car, …
  • fitness tracking is an obvious point, including replacing the iPod as your music source during exercise. A smallish, but lucrative niche to get the watch of the ground, with some nice halo effect as well.
  • And of course telling the time, and the other functions of the clock app.

It will be interesting to watch this evolve, as I feel there is a huge risk of providing too many small functions cluttering the interface, making access so slow that you’d rather use the phone. Also the interface itself looks quite limited: you have the touchscreen, with your thumb obscuring most of the screen, or the crown which is only one dimension and could be difficult to use when strapped on the wrist. It seems to me that having more than a dozen apps to choose from will be painfully slow. All of this points to a very restrained role the watch will be playing compared to the phone, a role which will only require quite limited hardware resources, and so see much longer upgrade cycles than the iPhone.

15. December 2014 · Categories: Politics

Die massiven Steuervorteile, welche man dem Mittelstand gewährt mit der Steuerfreiheit für vererbtes Familienvermögen, sind eine Frechheit.

Es ist zwar nachzuvollziehen, dass man bei einem Führungswechsel wegen Todes das Unternehmen nicht unnötig belasten will, aber dafür benötigt man keine Steuerfreiheit. Eine weitaus fairere Methode wäre es, die Erbschaftssteuer den Besitzern zu stunden, solange das Unternehmen weiterhin in deren Besitz bleibt, und die Besitzer den vollständigen Satz zahlen zu lassen, wenn diese das Unternehmen verkaufen, Vermögen für private Zwecke entnehmen (natürlich nur über den entnommenen Anteil), oder mit ihrem Vermögen ins Ausland verziehen.

Auch wäre dies eine gute Gelegenheit, die unglaublich grosszügige Staffelung der Erbschaftssteuer zu überdenken. Ein Freibetrag pro Person von 250000€ ist eine großzügige Basis, um kleinere Geschenke, die man doch nicht gut kontrollieren kann, von der Steuer auszuschließen. Danach drei Stufen, 20% von €250K bis €500K, 30% von €500K bis €1 Mio, und 40% für alle Beträge darüber. Extra Freibeträge sind dann noch sinnvoll für direkte Verwandte, welche nicht erwerbsfähig sind (für deren finanzielle Absicherung sollten €500K ausreichen), sowie beim Ehepartner über das gemeinsam erwirtschaftete Vermögen. Zu guter Letzt dann noch einen Rabatt für einen Nacherben, wenn der Zwischenerbe schnell verstirbt; z.B. könnte man den Nacherben 3.33% der Erbschaftsteuer zahlen lassen für jedes Jahr, welches der Zwischenerbe noch leben durfte.

Damit hätte man ein deutlich gerechteres Erbrecht als das heutige, welches die Familie massiv besser stellt.

23. November 2014 · Categories: Politics

Die Kosten für die Maut werden deutlich höher ausfallen als nötig, da diese aufgrund des Gleichheitsgrundsatzes eben auch für Inländer optional sein muss. Dadurch entsteht Kontrollbedarf eben auch für die Landstraßen, was einen erheblichen Anteil an den gesamten Kontrollkosten ausmachen dürfte. Wenn man die Kosten von 200 Mio dann dem fairen Mautanteil von Ausländern (gut 6,5% Anteil, entsprechend 210 Mio) gegenüber stellt, dann wird deutlich, dass sich die Maut überhaupt nur durch in der Summe gegenüber Ausländern diskriminierende Tarife rechnen kann.

22. November 2014 · Categories: Copyright

It seems that the EU wants to make injunctions the default remedy in patent cases. This is quite troubling because of the hold up nature of patents: it means you could extort an disproportionate rent from accidental use of a minor infraction. It will mainly aid patent trolls, since it seems important safeguards are missing:

  • You can pursue an injunction even before you have a ruling on the validity. Given how many crappy patents are issued, this is a huge problem.

  • There is no proportionality with regard to the actual value of the patent. Many infringements happen because the invention is close to obvious and has been independently recreated. This means the invention should be considered nearly useless, and not be available for extortion.

  • There is no recognition that the negotiation overhead for possible hundreds of patents needed for typical computer based techniques would be prohibitive for small companies, and could strongly inhibit innovations.

05. November 2014 · Categories: Apple

With the latest event, Apple has now provided us with its latest lineup. It is an interesting one:

  • iPhone 6 Plus provides the paperback sized iPad experience, marketed as a phone with huge margins. Still surprised that it does not support the SD card reader.
  • iPhone 6 is interesting in that the smaller 4" size has now been discontinued. I am still adjusting to this size, it is definitely less easy to use with one hand, but with some navigation changes in the software most of the problem could be overcome. Still hearing from people that it is too big and they went for the 5S instead.
  • Retina iMac looks like a gorgeous and absolutely price competitive computer. Technically the most impressive advance.
  • iPad has seen a small upgrade in the minis, lost the rotation lock on the Air, but gained a less reflective screen, and essentially provides Touch ID now. An incremental update, nothing you need to get, but a nice improvement if you had a pre A7 iPad. I am disappointed that the price for thinness seems to be the loss of rotation lock.

Overall it seems that with the new Watch, Apple is now willing to grow the surface of its devices, as the “glance and react/ignore” use case no longer needs to be so prominently served. The greatest advance this year is the better integration between the devices, making it much more seamless to move around work between the devices.

03. November 2014 · Categories: Politics

Wenn man sich den Entwurf zur Maut mal genauer ansieht, dann fällt auf, dass die Kontrolldaten ein ganzes Jahr gespeichert werden sollen. Und das alles, damit man kontrollieren kann, ob eine Erstattung der Jahresmaut wegen Nichtnutzung gerechtfertigt ist. Das ist völlig überzogen, da man stattdessen die originelle Maut optional machen kann, und sollte man sich irren, einen nachträglichen Erwerb ermöglichen könnte.

02. November 2014 · Categories: Politics

Die aktuellen Mautpläne sind noch immer viel zu kompliziert. Immerhin hat man sich zu einer elektronischen Erfassung durchgerungen, was deutlich gerechtere Erhebungsmodelle ermöglichen sollte: So wird die Buchung deutlich einfacher, und man könnte kürzere Mautzeiten anbieten. Natürlich werden sich mal wieder viele über die Datenerfassung aufregen, aber da werden deutlich weniger Daten anfallen als durch das Handy.

Mir gefällt überhaupt nicht, dass es keine kurzen Zeiten geben wird. Wenn man mal für einen Tag nach Düsseldorf oder Dresden will, dann kostet das vielleicht 9 Euro Sprit für die in Deutschland gefahrenen Kilometer. Und dann soll man dafür noch 10 Euro Maut draufzahlen?

Besonders wenn Inländer für ein Saisonkennzeichen eine auf den Tag genau berechnete partielle Maut zahlen dürfen, sprich eine Monatsplakette für maximal 11 Euro erhalten können.

25. October 2014 · Categories: Apple

Coming from an iPhone 4S, the 6 is quite a big change. The screen is huge enough that it makes one handed operation more difficult, but at least for my hands it just remains possible if you lay the phone flat in the palm of your hand. And for this position I highly recommend a leather case, without a case I would worry that the phone would slip from my hand. And if you require a firmer grip, a double tap on the home button will work well enough to bring the elements into reach. The problem is ironically the lower far corner, which I can only just reach with my thumb. This means that if your hand is smaller than the average male hand, you really should check in person if the 6 is not too large for you.

The screen on the other hand sufficiently compensates for these problems: you can see a lot more ( or if your eyesight is fading, you can activate a scaling mode to have a permanent zoom mode). It especially makes writing easier, with the larger keyboard targets, and should enable even fat fingers to no longer need landscape mode. It is an adjustment to get used to the new spacing coming from a previous iPhone, but while you are learning, autocorrect works quite well in guessing what you actually meant to write. The larger screen is especially welcome for watching videos, where the improved brilliance and viewing angles of the display also get to shine.

Native and scaled apps with keyboard

Scaled and native app with keyboard

Even with the larger dimensions, the 6 is a tiny bit lighter than a 4S, and still fits most pockets easily: only specifically tailored phone pockets will be too small.

Others [1] have written extensively about the new phone, so here are just my highlights coming from a 4S:

  • Touch ID is a great win for security and convenience. My recommendation is to let 1Password generate you pronounceable password of about 16 letters, use that password for about a month without the sensor so that you have properly learned it, and then activate Touch ID.
  • the camera is brilliant, the new manual controls very welcome, and it is just so much faster to start up and to focus.
  • I really like the improvements to typing: the suggestions in the bar above the keyboard are good often enough to improve typing speed, especially one-handed, and the speech recognition is a good deal better, and now supports Dutch as well.

  1. AnandTech has the technical details, John Gruber provides detailed insight into its uses, and Rene Ritchie has a detailed iOS 8 review  ↩
19. October 2014 · Categories: Apple

It will be interesting to see how Apple will price the different editions of the Watch. We know the starting point of $349, and we will have additional points above them. I believe it will largely look like this:

Price Edition
$349 Sport
$499 Standard with Sportband
$599 Standard with Steelband
$699 Standard with Leatherband
$799 Standard with Milanese Loop
$899 Standard with Leather Loop
$1999 Gold with Sportband
$2499 Gold with Leatherband

The $499 for the Standard is quite likely, it is a very standard price point to cover. For the gold watch, we know that it will have a gold casing, but this casing will likely not weight more than 10g to 20g. Gold is currently $1250/oz, or $40/g, so the cost of the gold in the Watch will not exceed $500. Given the volatility of the gold price, Apple will charge a nice margin above that, so depending on the actual gold content we could have 1499 or 1999 as the starter price for the gold watch.

11. October 2014 · Categories: Photos

Printing is dying, as we are currently seeing the same transformation both with books and with photos: casual use moves from print to tablets, while at the same time getting high quality prints is getting more affordable and popular.

With photos we see that the typical print is now almost completely replaced by the tablet, or even the larger phones, which is not only cheaper but also has since the 3rd generation iPad a better quality. And since then the quality of the displays has only increased, with very good factory calibration, and now almost perfect color stability when viewed at angle. Combined with the convenience of the phone, now home printing only makes sense for larger prints, for those you want to keep visible in your home.

These are not that many prints, so it will be cheaper and likely of better quality to have them printed. And since the images you put on your wall are at least semi public, there will be no privacy problems with having them printed by strangers. These are bleak times for selling printers, as the retina iPad has also made reading normal documents electronically quite feasible; I have completely stopped printing any technical documentation since getting my iPad 3.

Books will follow the same path, the paperback will be replaced by the ebook, while we will keep some books around, more as keepsakes and for presentation than for actually reading them. It will become more like a special occasion, with paper ceding the entire middle ground.

On the low end we will likely continue to have flyers, as they are so much easier to use. You can grab a flyer with a hand, and stuff away in a pocket, with no need to take out your phone, figure out how to accept the flyer and then accept it. One must also not forget that the higher marginal cost of flyers act to limit spamming, and people are already fed up with email spam, they do not want seeing strangers popping up adverts on your phone while out and about, so I suspect that location based advertising aimed at passerby’s will mostly move into your maps and search apps, or maybe sales apps used to find good deals. Because you need to intentionally pull your phone out, it will aid more in augmenting the experience once you are already committed, instead of grabbing your initial attention.